Exco Technologies Limited needs to consolidate the pullback from a spike high

Jul 28th, 2014 – Comment

The best case scenario at this point would be if the stock reverted to its pattern of building a base at these levels to support a new leg up.

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Hi Lou,

Enjoy your column, could you give me
your opinion on Exco Technologies.



Hey John,

Thanks for your kind words and the assignment. Exco Technologies Limited (XTC TSX) operates globally with facilities in ten countries. The company designs and manufactures a wide range of products to the die cast, extrusion, and automotive industries. Casting and extrusion make up 62% of sales with automotive responsible for the remainder. The shares have rewarded investors with significant gains since January of 2012. Revenue and earnings growth over the same time period have been robust and helped drive the stock to record highs in 2014.

An examination of the charts will inform my opinion of XTC.




The three-year chart provides a text book example of a stock producing a steady profit generating advance. The shares started the long term uptrend in January of 2012 with a golden cross forming in late February of the same year. The shares ran to resistance at $5.00 by late April then and built a base at $4.5o until November when another move higher began. Over the course of last 31 months the uptrend line has remained intact and there has been repeated tests of support along the 50-day moving average. In addition there has been a series of base building steps along the way providing support as the shares progressed.

When you inspect the MACD and the RSI over the last sixty days there were clear signs that the shares were getting overbought and that there would likely be a pullback from the all time highs. Which is exactly what transpired.





The momentum indicators on the  six-month chart generated a buy signal in mid May as the stock broke above resistance at $9.00 in April. The move to $12.50 by early June was perhaps a case of going too far, too fast and resulted in profit taking that drove the shares back to $10.50 by mid July. What is evident on the chart is that the next challenge for XTC will be moving through resistance at $11.50.

The best case scenario at this point would be if the stock reverted to its pattern of building a base at these levels to support a new leg up. The next flex point will the be the release of Q4 results in November. XTC offers a dividend that yields 1.77%  which won’t pay all the bill just some of them.


Make it a profitable day and happy capitalism!


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